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Trump and the future of geopolitics

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Since the begining of his government, Donald Trump, the President of the United States. Has been a center of attention for the entire world. It hasn’t just been because of because of his irreverence and unorthodox ways of leading the US government. But also for the potential impact of his, often scandalous, decisions in the position of the USA as a key player in the international scenario.

As one of the great economic powers of the world, and one of the founding nations of a large number of international organizations and agreements. The weight of the north american country in geopolitics is indisputable. Thus, the actions and stands of President Trump, could permanently change the balance of world geopolitics. Changing with that, the global economic system as we know it today. Affecting financial markets, commercial systems and generating new alliances and balances of power.

The impeachment process:

This is the most recent, and one of the most scandalous conflicts in which President Trump has been involved.

A report made by a CIA officer put the President in check. To the point that now, he could be at risk of being removed from office. The report, backed by a phone call, accused President Trump of asking the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, for help. To investigate Joe Biden, his main political rival, and his son Hunter. Since Biden’s son has business activities in the European country, Trump sought to find murky information that could help him damage the political image of the Bidens.

The call, whose content has not been made public. It is pointed out, contains information that shows how President Trump tried to pressure the Ukrainian government to get information about his rival. With this, using his political power for illegitimate purposes and violating the constitution. Trump and his advisors have denied the accusations, claiming that there were not  irregularities in his communication with Zelenski.

However, Democrats have pressed for a political trial to impeach the President, that could lead to the revocation of his mandate. Accusing him of jeopardizing US national security of the EE.UU.

The progress of the case will remain in the hands of the US Senate. Although, some analysts indicate that it is unlikely that the trial will take place. Mainly because there is a Republican majority in the Senate. Others, indicate that there are real chances that it will happen and that doing so could create instability and uncertainty in the markets.

Among some of the geopolitical and economic implications that the political trial against Trump could have, are the following:

  • If the process moves on and the impeachment takes place, it could cause a legislative paralysis in the US Congress. Thus pausing important processes such as:

      -The ratification of the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada.

      -The solution of the commercial confrontation with China and the possibility of and agreement.

       -The progress of the announced trade agreement with England.

  • On the other hand, if the impeachment process fails to proceed. President Trump would enter the electoral process with greater pressure. This could lead to an urge to reach agreements of great impact that could give him a good light facing the elections.

  • The results of the trial could impact the US economy, which could affect the strength of the dollar and impacting exchange rates, interest rates and debt bonds.

  • The biggest impact of the trial process against Trump will be in the future. During the next elections. Since the progress and / or results of the process could have a direct impact on the reelection of Trump as President. With this, continuing or changing the geopolitical and commercial strategy of the United States.

  • If he is reelected, the tendency towards protectionism and the trade war, would most likely continue. This could generate. On the positive side, the need to create new alliances, in which the center of gravity is not the United States. Moving with it, economic flows, pole growths and with this, the concentration of power. On the other side, the negative, tensions could increase, increasing the potential for conflict.